Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Nasdaq 100 chart

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I mentioned in my previous "Panic Selling..." post that the Nasdaq 100 index was not as oversold as S&P 500 and DJI indexes during the recent crash in July 2008 by pointing on some bearish sentiment in the Nasdaq 100 sector while the DJI and S&P were more optimistic. Over the last two session we continued to see the power pressure of the Nasdaq companies which continued to push the stock market down. The question is for how long.

The Nasdaq 100 index is most dramatic over the past couple of session and that is why I brought out the Nasdaq 100 60-day chart to see what is the tendency in the changes of this index sentiment changes. The same as before the S&P 500 is not as bearish as the Nasdaq 100 and the DOW(30), I would say, even somewhat bullish. Despite the negative Nasdaq pressure the Dow Jones managed to end today's session even with shallow gain.

Nasdaq 100 chart
Summarizing the Nasdaq 100 technical indicators on the chart above I may say that
  • SBV is still bearish - moving down (neutral on S&P 500 and positive on the DJI);
  • We see high volume surge during the last two trading session slide (high negative MVO) which is a good sign for possibility of the coming reversal. Yet MVO is still below zero line (the same on the S&P and DOW);
  • Advance/decline oscillator is more neutral by moving close to the central line (similar on the S&P and DOW);
  • MACD started to move up which would favor the reversal (S&P 500 and DJI MACD bullish as well);
  • RSI is at 30. Should it drop below it would point to the possibility of the further slide. Should it move up it would indicate bullish sentiment (S&P and DOW RSI are somewhat bullish);
  • Stochastics is below 20 - bearish sign (S&P and DOW Stochastics are bullish);
  • McClellan Oscillator reversed and started to move up, yet it still below zero line.

So, I see some negative signs in the Nasdaq 100 index. Yet, at the same time I see some technical indicators started to change from bearish into neutral and from bearish into bullish, which could point that we could be close to the bottom. It looks like the S&P and DJI are ready to go up and they wait for the Nasdaq companies only.

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