Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Unexpected 10% on QQQQ options in few hours

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As I mentioned yesterday I would expect the down move, but I would not a play short on this move, but rather use it as an opportunity to buy…

Today was nice day. After strong move down on all indexes, I saw the huge volume spikes that indicated that this correction down generated some panic among the traders and as soon as I saw the NASDAQ 100 started to recover I used this to buy options. Maybe not a lot, but by the end of the session I have pocketed 10% profit from the January QQQQ options.

The question is what's next?

By the end of the session I saw the similarly huge volume spikes to the price up-move. That mainly pushed me to close the QQQQ options position.

In spite today’s volatility I’m still in the bullish mid-term mood. However, my short-term outlook is not as bullish. I would still expect some further move up, but would consider staying in cash until I see clearer short term indicators.

At this moment my main short-term indicators on the NASDAQ 100 show that this index is overbought and for healthy up-move there is a need in a correction. On the other hand S&P 500 and DJI would show that there is still some room for up-move before we may see the that correction. I would expect more flat market for a few sessions with possible up-move. So let’s see what tomorrow bring us…

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Small Correction?

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Again the NASDAQ 100 moved up while other indexes dropped down. It looks like today we saw the slide that could be a beginning of the small correction. I’m still bullish in the mid-term and I would assume to see the small correction within the dominant mid-term up-trend.

Yes, tomorrow I would expect to see indexes lower, however I would not risk to place a short trade, since my indicators show that the up-move could be resumed at any moment. I would rather wait for a nice moment to open a long trade.

Monday, October 29, 2007

First Quiet Day

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The new week started on the small average daily volume. It could be a sign that high volatility days are over. Today was the first session when the NASDAQ 100, S&P 500 and DJI indexes moved in the same direction and with similar dynamic.

I would expect to see indexes higher over the mid-term – at least my indicators points to hat. Of course the NASDAQ 100 is still bearish on some indicators and there still could be corrections to the down-side and I would expect the NASDAQ 100 would be a power source for this corrections. It maybe will take a few sessions until we completely be able to disregard thus bearishness.

Any way, I’m bullish and I would try using corrections downside to buy call options or sell short puts (uncovered options).

Friday, October 26, 2007

The same as yesterday, but I'm more bullish

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The same as yesterday, the NASDAQ 100 tried to push the market down while the S&P 500 and DJI tried to move in the opposite direction.

At the current moment the majority of the technical indicators are mixed for the NASDAQ 100. The analysis applied to the S&P 500 points to the bullish mood. I would expect to see the beginning of the recovery more then continuation of the down-trend.

If I would think of placing a trade tomorrow I would prefer to deal with SPY, not QQQQ, simply because the technical indicators are clearer for the S&P 500 then for the NASDAQ 100. Let’s see what we will get tomorrow. So far, I’m bullish, but I would not bet on the QQQQ.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Nice trading

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Today was a good day - 15% on one trade only.

What is going to happened tomorrow – that is the question. Nobody could be sure, I only may expect…

Today we saw the S&P 500 and DJI retesting their October 22 lows with strong recovery after. It looks like the S&P 500 and DJI could be at the bottom of the correction and we may see the recovery soon. On the other hand the NASDAQ 100 failed to follow the market during the slide down that started on October 11. There comes conflict situation – while the S&P 500 and DJI indicators show oversold levels the same NASDAQ 100 indicators show overbought levels.

I spite the fact that the NASDAQ 100 failed to follow the S&P 500 over the past few weeks, I would expect to see the recovery rally more then continuation of the down-trend over the next week.

Regarding tomorrow – I would skip trading – too high volume on the NASDAQ 100 over the last 2 session.

15% in a few hours - no bad

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The short position (sold short at $1.44) was covered by buying at $1.22

As I expected

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As I expected yesterday the market is down.

During the morning recovery I have sold short QQQQ cals (QQQLC at $1.44)

Let's see if that will work. 15% would be nice

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

NASDAQ leads the market - for how long?

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Starting from the October 10, 2007 the S&P 500 and the DJI are in the deep correction. In opposite, the NASDAQ 100 has moved flat all this time.

The Last 2 sessions we saw the recovery from the correction and the logical question could be asked: “is this the end? Will market continue to recover or it’s just a temporary stop before further drop?”

Today we saw big volume on the NASDAQ 100. No doubt, some “big money” played “some games” in this sector today. As a rule after such big volume the market need some release and I would not expect the NASDAQ 100 move strongly further up. I opposite I would expect slow down in the up-move and maybe only modest rising, but most likely flat market over the next few sessions.

If I see that the NASDAQ 100 starts to follow this scenario, most likely I will start thinking on selling short QQQQ option calls.


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By following my friends’ advices I finally started.