Saturday, September 6, 2008

Nasdaq 100

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In my last "Nasdaq 100 Chart" post I have mentioned about the desire of the Nasdaq 100 index to compensate in recent decline what it missed in June-July 2008 decline. I've already emphasized in July (see "DJI" post from 07/20/2008) that the Nasdaq sector was not as oversold as S&P 500 and DJI indexes at that time. It looks like now the Nasdaq stocks decided to catch in the recent decline what was misses in July. While the S&P 500 and DJI indexes were ready for the recovery the Nasdaq 100 index was still behind. However, now (over the last week) we see strong volume surges in the Nasdaq sector. The volume during the decline indicates panic selling and high volume surges during decline indicate that some traders decided to satisfy the demands of the panic sellers by buying huge amount of shares. Keep in mind that Nasdaq 100 index has been in decline since August 16, 2008 while the S&P 500 and DJI only since September 2, 2008 (only 4 trading session).

Now After this week I see very good chances for a recovery. By looking at the 1-year index charts I may assume that the Nasdaq 100 index has become oversold as well and now all three indexes have power to move up. Yet, I could be wrong and I do not recommend following conclusions of my technical analysis. Each trader has to do his/her own homework...

Coming back to my favorite 60-day chart, I see good odds of bullish market, at least at the beginning of the coming week (for the rest of the week I would analyze the same chart during the next week).

Nasdaq 100 chart

I have selected the Nasdaq 100 chart again since (on my opinion) this index was the major engine behind the recent decline. The S&P 500 and DJI indexes technical indicators look similar. This week I decided to set a table of these three indexes which summarizes used by me technical indicators and results of my technical analysis:

 Nasdaq 100S&P 500DJI
SBVBullish - Moving up
MVOBullish -Big volume surges. Now, MV=0 and this is a positive sign as wellBullish - Big volume yet not as big as in the Nasdaq 100 sector
AD Osc.Somewhat Bullish - Moving up, yet still at low negative levels
MACDSomewhat Bullish - Moving up, yet still at low negative levels
RSIBearish - Still below 30Bullish - Just moved above 30
StochasticsBullish - Crossed 20 and moving up
McClellanSomewhat Bullish - Negative and far from center line

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