Sunday, August 31, 2008

Panic Selling - Oversold Levels

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Starting from the middle of July (see my DJI post on July 20, 2008) I have been accepting the high volume surges during the June-July 2008 market crass as extremely high panic selling that pushed the stock market into the heavily oversold stage. As a result of this heavy oversold level we had the recovery, yet, the recovery was not as strong as I expected. It's one and half month since the market hit the bottom and because of that I pushing myself to take another look at my longer term charts to see if there are any changes in the stock market sentiment.

By analyzing the S&P 500 and DJI indexes we may see a lot of similarities, yet, the Nasdaq 100 1-year chart has completely different picture.  No wonder that over the last month we had a lot of trading session when the Nasdaq 100 index was trying to push the market in one direction while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials were struggling to run in opposite direction.

The technical indicators on the Nasdaq 100 chart (see my set of indicators in the "New Highs/Lows" post on August 12, 2008) are not very optimistic at that point of time. Because of the last two weeks, the technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 index gives the Bearish outlook. Taking into account that in July 2008 the Nasdaq 100 companies were not as oversold as the S&P 500 and DJI stocks it make the picture for the Nasdaq 100 even more Bearish.

At the same time the S&P 500 and DJI technical analysis still points to the higher odds of the Bullish market. In addition to the technical indicators, if I start to compare the January and March 2008 S&P 500 volume surges (panic selling) with July 2008 volume I clearly see that panic selling in July was far more extreme than in January which leads me to assume that in July the stock market reach stronger oversold levels than it was in the beginning of the year. As a result of the January and March oversold levels we had strong recovery where the S&P 500 run more than 10% up. Now, when I saw several times stronger oversold levels the S&P 500 recovered only around 7%... For me it's difficult to accept that this is over and overall, I still believe that the market has more room for recovery, and my longer term mood is still bullish. Yet, the further we go from the middle of July (bottom of the stock market crash) without recovery, the more often I will be looking at the longer term charts to see if there is any changes in the market sentiment.

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