Saturday, August 23, 2008

DJI Chart

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Nice week. From y last "S&P 500" post you may see that I expected some correction and we had it. Yet, the longer-term up-trend pushed the stock market higher by the end of the week. (refer to my 1-year technical analysis in my "New Highs/Lows" post on August 12, 2008 and my "DJI" post on July 20, 2008).

My outlook over the longer-term stays unchanged. The same as before I believe that the high volume surges in June-July 2008 have power to push the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and DJI indexes and the whole market much higher.

With shorter-term, I only may give one advice to monitor charts on the daily basis. For those who analyze charts, the Monday-Tuesday slide should not be a surprise, as well as Thursday-Friday recovery was clearly defined by the technical indicators. If today my 60-day technical analysis points to the higher odds of the further recovery (see chart below), it does not mean the the same technical indicators will be bullish the whole next week. The technical indicators on the 60-day chart can turn from bullish into bearish any time during the week. That's why I always say "do not trust my judgment, do your homework yourself and do it on regular basis. You skip it, you lose it. If you skip and did not lose that mean that you were lucky and next time you may lose even more...".

Ok, back to the 60-day chart I may say that all three indexes S&P 500, Dow(30) and Nasdaq 100 have almost similar sentiment on all technical indicators:
  • SBV - Bullish - The SBV is moving up;
  • MVO - Bullish - the last high volume surge is red - during the price decline;
  • Advance-Decline Issues Oscillator - Bullish - The AD Oscillator is on up-side;
  • RSI and Stochastics - Bullish - The RSI and Stochastics are above70 and 80 levels respectively;
  • MACD- Bullish - The MACD is advancing;
  • McClellan Oscillator - Bullish - The McClellan Oscillator is on its way up.

Chart 1: DJI 60-day chart with elements of technical analysis

DJI chart


Michael said...

Hi, I found your blog while searching for info on the SBV oscillator. I like your analysis. I have a couple questions for you. I'm curious how you got the A/D line and McClellan on your chart. I signed up for a trial at marketvolume and I don't see options to add these indicators.

Second I'm curious how you much you use SBV Oscillator in your trading signals. In hindsight it looks pretty good, but usually everything does. ;)

Thanks for your blog, it is very appreciated.

TraderJoe said...

Ask them to upgrade your free trial to PLATINUM package - they usually honor it. McClellan and Advance Declines are in that package. You may as for free trial extension up to two weeks (I know nobody who get bigger extension).

Michael said...

Hi, I realized why I wasn't seeing them, they're on the index charts and not the e-mini charts.

While searching for information on volume oscillators I found an article you wrote which was very interesting. I'm curious if you know how the selling & buying volume are calculated, and how the SBV oscillator is calculated? I'm curious how this works because I've tried papertrading their basic system with crossovers and I can't get it to work.