Sunday, July 20, 2008


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We had very nice move up this week. In spite of negative media pressure who threatened us that another 90 financial banks more likely will follow IndyMac path, the Dow Jones Industrial index is 6.2%, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 indexes are 3.5% up from the July 15, 2008 lows. Already on July 8, 2008 in my "Stock Market Crash" post I highlighted that the market is heavily oversold and we may face the strong and fast recovery movement. However, the market moved lover and on July 14, 2008 in my "Charts Technical Analysis" post I did take a look at 1-yer charts to confirm my expectation on the market recovery. I stated that the stock market is heavily oversold and that even if the market intends to drop further down, before, it need to release the oversold pressure in the recovery movement. I pointed that the Nasdaq 100 is not as oversold as the S&P 500 and DJI indexes and we saw the Nasdaq 100 behind the other indexes rally up.

I always mention about importance of the monitoring the charts during the trading hours. By looking back on the 60-day index charts we may see that on July 14, 2008 the Advance/Decline Oscillator started to advance by pointing to the shift in the market sentiment. On the same day the SBV oscillator started to advance indicating the possibility of the recovery. Shortly after the market open on July 16, 2008 the MVO become equal to zero and McClellan Oscillator overcrossed zero line by confirming the bullish sentiment. So, I do not think that those traders who follow charts are surprised by this recovery.

Now, looking forward, we have the same question - what's next? Will the DJI and the S&P 500 indexes follow the Nasdaq 100 drop on Friday or will the recent recovery continue? I would put this question in other way - did the recent recovery release the longer-term oversold power at least partially in order to resume the down-trend? and I would put other question - looking on the recent week, did the market become oversold in the shorter term?

To answer on the first question I have to look at my 1-year chart (the chart I mentioned in my "Stock Market Crash" post).

DJI chart

The technical analysis applied to the yearly charts tells me that the stock market is still heavily oversold:

  1. SBV is still negative and still moves up;
  2.  I see only red MVO (no green MVO - no volume surges to the price up-side);
  3.  Stochastics only started to move up;
  4. VIX volatility index only started to decline and still is above 20;
  5. MACD is not even crossed zero line on its move up from the negative area.
All the technical indicators above point to the beginning of the development of the recovery and high possibility of further up-move. The 1-year chart definitely does not show any release of oversold power and it does not show that the market has become overbought during the recent week recovery. Based on this chart I would assume that we may see further move up.

To answer the second question I have to look at my 60-day index charts and see what my technical analysis tells me about shorter time-frame. Since the Dow Jones Index has made the strongest up-move I have emphasize my attention on that index.

DJI chart
From the chart above we may see that the 60-day DJI technical analysis overall is positive and points to the possibility of the further up-move:
  •  the SBV is still very high - could be premature to talk about changes in the bullish sentiment;
  •  the Stochastics and RSI are above 80 and 70 levels respectively by pointing to the bullish sentiment as well;
  • VIX volatility index is moving down, away from its July 15, 2008 high when it run above 30.
  • McClellan oscillator started to move down, yet, it is still far above zero line and it could be premature to talk abbot reversal based on this technical indicator.

The only negative fact I see on the DJI chart is high volume surges during the index run up on July 17-18, 2008 (see green MVO). There is a high possibility that this high volume pushed the indexes into short-term overbought territory and the fact that MACD and McClellan oscillator started to move down shows the possibility of the market reaction on that volume. The technical studies on the S&P 500 index chart looks almost the same as on the DJI chart, yet the 60-day Nasdaq 100 chart has less positive and more negative points.

Again, I would bring up 3 possible scenarios of the further development:

Scenario #1: Stock market reacts on July 17-18 high volume and drop down - in this case it can drop lower the July 15 lows.

Scenario #2: The stock market continues to move up by ignoring the July 17-18 high volume. The market is at high oversold levels and it has power to continue the rally.  That would tell me that this high volume was generated not by buyers but sellers who considered this small recovery as a good point to sell short. In this case I would tell that, most likely, those sellers pushed the market even into stronger oversold stage and we may see even stronger recovery.

Scenario #3: The July 17-18 high volume slows down the advance and the stock market continue to move up or sideway with further retesting of the most recent lows and collecting more downside volume before final reversal.

Personally, I would stuck with the scenario #3, simply because I already see some changes in the McClellan, MACD. In addition the Nasdaq 100 is not as oversold as the other indexes. Yet, I could be wrong and may only recommend to monitor and analyze charts.

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