Sunday, November 7, 2010

S&P 500 Index Chart

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We had quite strong break through from the side-way trading on Thursday, November 4, 2010. The last two days of the week were accompanied by very strong bullish volume which very clearly could be seen on the Dow Jones Industrials (^DJI) and the S&P 500 (^SPX) indexes.

We had strong bullish volume surges on many indexes in period from October 12 until October 21, 2010. We have not see any reversal followed that strong bullish trading (I would not call a 2% retracement as a correction or reversal). Now, again, we have strong bullish trading...

At the current moment many technical indicators suggest good odds of further advance. This is mainly because of the advance during the last two trading sessions. However, I think that we should remember that the same technical indicators suggested a possibility of a correction just a week ago. I would not relay heavily on technical analysis right now. It looks like other factors (possibly fear of dollar inflation) move big player into the stock market, while other big players are dumping stocks.

We had strong move up and by many indicators (volume and advance/decline based) the stock market could be considered strongly overbought. The high trading volume surges over the last three weeks confirms that - there are many big traders who consider market overbought and who is dumping in big volumes to greedy  buyers. It is difficult to say who will win in this battle. Keep in mind that over the last two years there are big companies who reported big earning and who did not invested earned many in anything but was sitting on cash. Now, when the Government is officially talking about how much good an inflation could bring to the economy and FED announcement about printing and pumping another $900 billions, those companies could be buying. Of course there could be other explanation of the last two days up-move, however as technical analysts we should not worry for the cause, but watch where the money go.

Now, when the market is far up from the Augusts' lows, it would be logical to have strong correction. The question is when. Right now I would watch S&P 500 SBV Oscillator (bar period = 20) on daily chart (1 bar = 1 day). Starting from the beginning of September SBV Oscillator show positive money flow. The money flow is still positive on that chart. I would wait when I see decline in the flow. Yes, daily charts are longer-term charts and they have some lag in signals. However, if we face a correction I would expect it to be quite strong.

Chart #1: The S&P 500 index daily chart with elements of technical analysisSP 500 Index chart - November 2010

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