Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Money Flow and Volatility

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We had up-swing at the market open and then decline as I expected yesterday. However, around 11am the indexes started advance as US Dollar started to decline. If you compare today's US Dollar Index and S&P 500 index you will see that their trends are exactly opposite. As I already mentioned several times, it looks like current stock market investors are looking at US Dollar trend.

Regarding money flow: the money flow continue to stay negative on the hourly charts. Today's advance did not greatly affected it. On 30- and 15-min charts it have became positive (I have mentioned yesterday that I would watch these charts). Yet, on 5-min chart money flow is becoming negative again.

Overall, from the money flow prospective I would say that the main sentiment(hourly chart) continue to be weak, in addition we may have decline tomorrow at the market open (5-min chart). If this happen and we see change in the flow on 15- and 30-min chart he we may have some strong decline.

Other things to consider is :

- The ETFs already dropped after the market close and index emini futures are already traded down. So most likely we will have weak opening tomorrow.

- The US Dollar index is close to its high seen on October 19 and on October 27, 2010.If this level is broken many traders may consider that the US dollar is not any more in down-trend. It could be additional fuel for stronger decline on the stock market.

- There are not a lot of economic reports, so most likely the trend will be guided mostly by technical analysis over the next couple of day (should not be surprises).

- Over the last couple of trading sessions we have an increase in volatility. I'll be reducing bar period setting on most of my intraday technical indicators to avoid a situation "when it's too late"

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