Saturday, October 16, 2010

Strong Volume on all Indexes

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As I mentioned on Friday before the market opened and in a few hours after the opening Bell, the last day of October's options was very volatile at the beginning, yet the volatility dropped down by the end of the session. The interesting part of Friday's trading was strong advance in the Nasdaq 100 index (2.1% up) at the moment when the rest of the indexes was trying to push down: DJI dropped 0.29%, Russell 2000 declined 0.23% and S&P 500 modestly advanced by 0.20%. At the same time, the indexes from the financial sector strongly declined on Friday: S&P 500 financial dropped by 1.71%, Nasdaq Banking by 1%. Housing and precious metal indexes were strongly negative on Friday as well: Amex Gold, PHLX Gold/Silver and PHLX Housing decline more than 1 %.

Friday's trading session was very interesting from the prospective of volume technical analysis as well. It was the third trading session in a row of high trading activity on all indexes and on some indexes the volume surges were very strong. However, since we hade mixed trends on Friday, we have mixed volume readings on different indexes. On the Nasdaq 100 index we had strong bullish volume surges on the S&P Financial and DJI indexes we had strongly bearish volume surges (especially if we look at them from the lower timeframes). From the longer-term prospective I would consider all volume traded over the last three trading session as Bullish volume, simply , because it was at the top of the recent up-trend. The only under a question for me could be the S&P 500 Financial index which has been in strong decline for the last two trading session.

Overall, I would say that the volume we saw over that last three trading session must affect longer-term trend. The question is when. We have all the factors that precede the reversal down - we had strong up move without even short-term corrections; we had huge bullish volume accumulation during this up move which indicate strongly overbought condition; we had strong increase in volume which could be considered as greedy buying by retail traders, etc. Still, as consistently mentioned before, if market is predisposed to reverse its trend it does not mean it will happen tomorrow. It could happen tomorrow, yet, we still may see a week or even two weeks of side-way trading. To be sure in reversal I would monitor money flow direction on the daily charts (1 bar = 1 day).

The third interesting point is that on Friday we had up move on the US Dollar index which was supported by extremely strong volume. If we take a look at the US Dollar reversal in December 2009 we may see that when US Dollar started to move up this up-move was accompanied by huge volume surges. If we see that US Dollar will continue to recover it could be another point that would support correction on the US stock market - if you compare US Dollar index to S&P 500 index you will see that over the last half of year, in most cases, the US dollar trend is opposite to the S&P 500 trend.

P.S. I'm sorry I did not post any chart snapshoot today - will try to do it tomorrow if I have time.

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