Sunday, May 23, 2010

Volume and Money Flow

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The indexes did not bounce up (as I expected) after extremely lowadvance/decline readings seen on May 14, 2010. Last week I listed bad and good things, on my opinion, and if we compare the previous week decline with the recent week decline we may say that the difference is that the decline on May 20, 2010 was supported by big bearish volume surges. High volume surges during such decline are a very good sign to support extremely low advance decline reading.

Overall, there are several very strong signals as I see:

1. Extremely low NYSE Composite and S&P 500 advance decline readings on May 20, 2010 would suggest strongly oversold condition and possibility of up-move.

2. High volume on May 20-21, 2010 suggests that many investors started to buy attracted by low priced stocks.

3. On May 21, 2010 we may see change in the money flow toward bullish side.

4. McClellan Oscillator became positive which suggests that majority investors are focused on the advancing stocks.

5. The biggest positive signal for me is price's behavior on May 21, 2010. The indexes (Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, DJI and others) started session strongly down, during the first five minutes of trading they generated huge trading volumes and then on low volume the price went up. That tells me that the market went down to kill stop-loss orders and then when all stop-losses orders were eaten the price went up because of luck of bearish traders.

There is only one thing that on my opinion is not very nice - is a big number of low advance /decline reading over the short period of time. This is not a very good sign. Even if I am right and we will see a recovery, I would be very cautious and I would watch that recovery closely.

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