Monday, June 28, 2010

Nasdaq 100

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Last week in my "Too Far Too Fast" post (on June 20, 2010) I have mentioned following "The trading volume over the past week was low (actually regular) which would not indicate greedy buying. I do not want to tell that this is the end of the recovery. We may see some drop down and then further run towards new highs. There is a possibility of such scenario and technical analysis points to that at this moment. However, if "big money" do not believe in strong recovery, for me it's difficult to believe in it either. Furthermore, I would be cautious and monitor stock market sentiment more closely."

It looks like not just me but the stock market in whole did not believed in strong recovery - starting from June 21st (on the next day after my post) we have been moving down.

If you take a look at the daily index charts (Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, DJI, etc) you may notice that the recent move down was relatively quiet. We did not have extremely low advance decline sentiment readings, we did not have increase in volatility and we did not have substantial increase in volume. In summary we may say that 4-5% drop over the past 5-6 trading session did not generate any panic on the stock market and this is not how a down-move usually ends.

If you take look at history - check the volume at the bottom of down move in the begging of October 2009, at the end of October 2009, in January-February 2010 and most recent on May 19-21 and on June 4-9 - you will see that all moves down are marked at the end by a strong increase in volume (volume surge). The current move down did not bring a lot of additional volume. We had only small increase in volume on June 24-25 and we have basically side-way trading since then.

Mainly because of the steady volume, it is difficult for me to believe that the current side-way trading may grow into a recovery. Majority of technical indicators continue to remain bearish. The Nasdaq 100 is maybe the only index that shows some small oversold condition. The disturbing thing for me is quiet trading (no increase in volatility during the recent decline). It sounds like a "silence before storm".

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