Sunday, April 25, 2010

Volume and Volatility

Follow Me on Facebook Follow Me on Tweeter

It's nice to be right. In the last two paragraph on my last report (see "Volume and Advance Decline Post" on Sunday April 18, 2010) I mentioned "...the stock market ... does not crash suddenly ... It is custom to see side-way trading and increase in volatility ... I would assume that we may see the indexes moving back to their recent highs. The volume surge during the Friday's decline itself may push indexes higher. The third factor pointing to possibility of rebound up is critically low advance/decline volume and ratio reading on Friday 16, 2010 ... I do not expect Friday's decline to grown into strong correction, at least not at this time."

The indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJI and others) have not just bounced back to the most recent highs, but many of them run over by hitting new high levels.

At the current moment many investors (I guess) asking for how long and how far will the up-rally (started in the first half of February, 2008) go? I bet many traders (including me) expected down move in the March 2010 during the side-way trading (see the "Resistance Corridor" post on April 3, 2010). Yet, the market continued its rally - that is why it is recommended to be sometimes a little bit more conservative (see last three paragraphs of the same "Resistance Corridor" post).

Now, by the end of the week many technical indicators remain positive by suggesting good odds for further up-move. Stochastics and RSI are above 70 and 80 lines respectfully. Advance/Decline volume and issues are positive as well. Money Flow indicators remains positive as well.

Despite all the positive indicators, there are two things that are worth paying attention to: high daily volume over the last two weeks and increase in volatility. The last two weeks of trading (starting from April 13, 2010) has been supported by high daily volume: huge volume surges during the April 13-15 up-move, even stronger volume surges on April 16 when indexes dropped down and still strong high volume surges during another strong up-move on April 17 - until now.

The second negative factor is an increase in volatility. As a rule increase in volatility suggests bearish mood and usually higher volatility is witnessed during a decline. This is not a good thing to see market rising on high volatility... At the current moment volatility raised to the level it was in January 2010 (during correction down). And increase in volatility on high volume during up-move is not very good sentiment...

Even technical analysis results suggest good odds of further up-move, because of high volume and increase in volatility, I would be very cautious. If volatility continues to grow or stay on the same level and we see sudden strong drops and strong bounces up, then I would expect to see a correction which could be stronger that the one we had in January 2010.

P.S. For monitoringVolume, Advance/Decline data and volatility for major US indexes and Exchanges (NYSE, S&P 500, DJI, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, etc) I would recommend visiting web site.

No comments: