Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Volume Technical Analysis

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Those who follow my blog may notice that in most cases I write to my blog during Saturday-Sunday. Today, I just would like to make a short post to follow my Sundays "S&P500 Chart" post.

On Sunday I mentioned: "The volume surge on July 8, 2009 was quite big … since the middle of the May 2009 the average volume is down and in relation to this volume the volume surge on July 8 could be considered big. I would say that because of this volume, we may see up-move for a couple of trading session. If it happens I would recommend monitoring charts more closely."

Over the last three trading sessions we had a strong up move. Even I did not expect such strong recovery - it is good to see it. It is always good to make double return from what you expected. There is no doubt now that the volume surge on June 8, 2009 (that I pointed to) marked the reversal. Indeed the volume based technical analysis could be "money making machine".

Now, I would like to drag your attention to the resistance levels we saw indexes at in the beginning of June. I'm sorry, I do not post chart today (I'll try do it during week-end), but if you take a look on 1-year daily (1 bar = 1 day) chart of the DJI and S&P 500 indexes and extend these resistance lines you will see that the market had the same resistance levels in December 2009. Because the market indexes spent a lot of time around those levels I consider them very sensitive to many long- and mid-term traders. As a result I would expect to indexes moving around those levels again. It is not necessary has to be that way (keep in mind that this is my personal opinion based on my personal technical analysis). Yet, I would closely watch the indexes over the next couple of sessions, especially after today's high volume – if you look at MVO (MarketVolume Oscillator measures amplitude of a volume surge) you will see how big it is.

A few days ago I have drugged your attention to the high negative MVO reading on July 8, 2009, now I attracting you to high positive MVO readings … (you may see MVO on charts).

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