Sunday, February 24, 2008

NASDAQ 100 Chart

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It’s a month since the indexes hit the bottom on January 23, 2008. The media still talk about recession, I think majority of traders still expect further crush, yet the market is basically flat. The NASDAQ 100 is modestly below and the S&P 500 with DJI are a little bit above where they were on January 28, 2008. Over the past month we had 2 attempts to revisit the January 23 low - on February 7th and 22nd 2008. The most clearly it could be seen on the NASDAQ 100 where the index almost hit the bottom, while the S&P 500 and DJI were still more than 3% above.

The main question still remains unchanged: are we going to see further crash or the market will move up?

This week I have posted the NASDAQ 100 chart, yet, the picture on the other indexes look the same.

NASDAQ 100 chart

The indicators on the 60-day chart look good for the recovery: volatility moves down, MACD, RSI Stochastics, SBV, AD Oscillators are heading up. The MVO is good, yet, still red. So, I would expect to see more up move during next week, at least at the beginning of the week (this is my personal opinion).

The 60- day chart would point for a possible trend over the next couple of days. It’s recommended to monitor this chart on the daily basis in order do not miss the changes in the sentiment. By analyzing the smaller timeframe – personally I prefer to watch 15-day chart – I may say the indicators are positive as well (sorry I do not post the chart) and we may see more up-move on Monday. However, by analyzing both this timeframes (60- and 15-day) we do not answer the main question about the general market trend. We may assume where the indexes could be over the short-term only…

To see the bigger picture, we have to analyze the bigger timeframe. By referring back to my previous “Technical Analysis” post on February 16, 2008 where I play around 2-year chart, I may only say two words – “No Changes”.

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