Sunday, March 28, 2010

Nasdaq Health Care

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I'll try to make short post this week. Last week in my "Technical Analysis" post on March 21, 2010 I have stated "Overall technical analysis became more bearish over the last week, mainly because of the Friday's decline. Many technical indicators started to show bearish signs. Yet, I would not disregard high volume during the Friday's decline. This volume may push indexes back to the most recent highs." - yes, we had push back, yet the market dropped down and the stock market (Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and DJI indexes) is where it was two weeks ago (on March 17, 2010)

As I mentioned two weeks ago "I would prefer to stay in cash. On such overbought indexes I think it would be too risky to trade "Long" and 1% of gain over five day does not worth a risk. At the same time it could be a little bit early to open a short position." (see "High Volume and Volatility" post on March 14, 2010) I would continue to stay on the same note. It is better to stay in cash during uncertain market then risk for one percent move.

Yes, the volume and volatility suggest that the market is predisposed for a correction down, yet, I would wait for a conformational signals. Taking into account that we had another week of almost side-way trading I may say the the market became overbought even stronger. The longer we stay at top (possible resistance level) the more shares (bigger volume) are traded at high price and the more overbought market is. Actually, over the last week we had some increase in volatility as well which is a bearish sign. Should we see further increase in volatility it would increase (on my opinion) the odds of a correction.

Just a thought: we still have not seen reaction of the Wall Street on the Health Care Bill... Personally, I would try staying away from buying stocks of insurance and health care companies. If you have access toNasdaq Health Care index, check it - this index only 1 point below its highest historical level which was hit in 2008. Pretty strong rally for this index over the last 12 months. Do you think it will continue to go up???

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