Sunday, December 21, 2008

Index Analysis

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Four weeks ago in my DJI post (on 11/23/2008) I have posted the following chart with statement that the market has set new support. I would like to point again to the same DJI chart:

DJI support chart

After 10/10 support (October 10, 2008 support level) the stock market and indexes did moved flat for a month until November 5, 2008 when they started to decline again. Now, it is a months after 11/21 support (support on November 20-21, 2008) and the logical question could be "should we expect to see reversal soon since there is a possibility that the stock market has stepped back from it's November's extremely oversold levels and accumulated some Bullish volume in December?"

We had first strong volume surges with  setting a support level on September 18, 2008, second on October 10, 2008 and the third one (most recent) on November 21, 2008. Each of this volume surges during the index declined pushed the indexes into oversold condition and every  time market become oversold stronger and stronger. If on September 18, 2008 the market reacted on high volume by strong one-day rally up (about 10% in a single session), then after 10/10 bottom (market was stronger oversold) the reaction on high bearish volume was expressed by 1-month up and flat move with about 16% recovery. The last time, on November 21, 2008, when after high volume surges the stock market has become oversold even stronger then on 10/10, the market respectfully reacted stronger - we have one month up move and indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and DJI) with 22-25% recovery.

The market is still could be considered strongly oversold because of the high Bearish volume on 9/18, 10/10 and 11/21, yet, I would weighted it as longer-term oversold condition. Over the shorter term we see some overbought levels - should not be a surprise with more than 20% up over a month - which may push indexes and whole market down, not necessary into another crash, yet on my opinion we may see an attempt to retest 11/21 bottom.

I would never try to guess what is going to happened to the market in several month or in a year - this is a job for fundamental analysts. What I do: I track if there is possibility of trend changes in the shorter term and then I monitor these changes for a possibility of developing them into stronger recovery or stronger crash. Right now, I see that indexes (S&P 500, DJI and Nasdaq 100) signal a possibility of the move down (keep in mind that I could be wrong, I'm just an average trader). The S&P 500 chart below explains my worries (Nasdaq 100 and DJI charts have similar look):

SP 500 support chart

Last week, in my S&P 500 Analysis post I mentioned that red MVO (volume surge during the price decline) may push the S&P 500 index up (we had up-move this week). Now, my main concern is that green MVO (volume surge during the price advance) may push the indexes down. The rest of technical indicators, including Stochastics, RSI (Relative Strength Index), SBV, McClellan Oscillator are bearish on this chart as well.

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