I'm wondering what technical analysis with exception of volume based technical indicators pointed a week ago on the high possibility of strong reversal. News and fundamental analysis are negative all the time: refuse to bailout automakers, request for another $800 billions of "rescue package", growing unemployment, dropping consumer confidence... Try to find at least one positive factor.
The logical question could be put is "Could S&P 500 20% and DJI 18% run mean the this is the end of the Global Recession?". My answer is I do not know and technical analysis will not answer you where the Stock Market is going to be in 2-5 years. The science of technical analysis has been developed to analyze stock market trends and flow of the money (volume) in order to spot overbought and oversold condition which could could lead to the trend reversal as well as to define technical indicators that may confirm the reversal on its earliest stage. I do not believe in technical analysis for long-term trading, yet, I believe it could be used for mid- and short-term trading because these timeframes less affected by politics.
Any way, let's go back to our technical indicators to see what they forecast.
We can see some oversold levels on many indicators which is a result of strong up-move over that past week. You may see that SBV shows a lot of green, RSI and Stochastics are above 70 and 80 lines respectively, Advance/Decline Oscillator has a lot of green as well - all of these indicats overbought market at least in short term. However, even these indicators are overbought, only McClellan Oscillator is strongly Bearish - it crossed zero line. The rest of technical indicators still point to Bullish sentiment, which, however, could become Bearish any time. Yes, I see some indication of possible move down and I' would closely monitor charts over the next couple of trading session especially on intraday levels to see if the market start dropping towards the November's bottom. Even If we see that move down I would not expect to be it very deep at this point of time. I would like to see some Positive (green) MVO (high volume during the price up-move) that would indicate some greedy buying before.
If I believe that the market is still Bullish and it still may go further up, yet, there is growing possibility of having at least a correctional move down, that means that especially now I would consider some trading strategy that would protect achived profit.