Friday, November 2, 2007

Will we see recovery tomorrow

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I mentioned in my previous post "my short-term outlook is not as bullish. I would still expect some further move up, but would consider staying in cash until I see clearer short term indicators." – good for me I stayed in cash…

Today the S&P 500 and DJI came close to October 22 and October 24 lows. Taking into the account hat this level is close to the August 8 and September 4 highs as well as to June 8 and June 27 lows I would say that this level is very sensitive to many traders. There should be a lot stop-loss orders around this level and as a confirmation of this we may see big volume surges on the move down for the last 2 sessions.

The day before yesterday I was more bearish in the short term, but not now. I did not played short, since I did not expect such strong move down (good for me). Now my short-term indicators showing that there is bigger odds for the market to move up tomorrow and this goes along with my mid-term bullish outlook.

I think tomorrow could be a good day to try open a long trade. I would not bet on the QQQQ options but rather I choose the SPY options ( maybe January calls) or if to be more conservative uncovered SPY put options (November expiration with $3-5 out of the money strike).

The only thing that makes me nervous is the NASDAQ 100 – it does not move along with other indexes…

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